News Update - Crisis in the Balkans (again?)
Good Morning SC Delegates!
I came across a CNN article on the aftermath of the popular reaction in Serbia to Kosovo recently declaring itself independent (full text here). There is currently a NATO sponsored peacekeeping presence in the region (KFOR) sanctioned by the Security Council. Russia, which has always had strong ties to Serbian nationalism, refuses to recognize Kosovo as an independent country. It released the following statement earlier this week:
“If the EU works out a single position or if NATO steps beyond its mandate in Kosovo, these organizations will be in conflict with the U.N., and then I think we will also begin operating under the assumption that in order to be respected, one needs to use force,”
Questions: Should the Security Council authorize the expansion of KFOR’s mandate to include preserving the territorial integrity of this new state? What should be done if conflict erupts with the peace keepers in the middle? What are the chances (feel free to personally guess here) that this conflict could expand into more general war? What actions could your nation take to prevent it (if any)?
Like last time, give me a few short sentences answering the questions above for extra credit.
- Richard Hill
“Peace is our Profession”
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
The UNSC needs to open talks with Serbia and Kosovo and seek the assistance of neighboring nations, mainly Russia. As far as the expansion of KFOR’s mandate, China feels that the guidelines set out in previous resolutions, mainly UNSC Resolution 1224, which currently stands as the political and legal position in Kosovo, should continue to determine the actions taken within the territory. All efforts to move should fall in line with these resolutions. If conflict should erupt involving the peacekeepers then action must be taken to calm the violence. China is deeply concerned that the recent declaration of independence will have a severe, negative impact on peace and stability in the Balkan region. As far as further conflict involving Kosovo, China feels that Russia should play a significant part in ensuring a peaceful resolution. China doesn’t want to be seen as an aggressor or as an anti-western influence in the area. The nation of China currently remains out of the conflict with Kosovo, and simply expresses our grave concern over the issue. Taiwan has offered support of Kosovo, but Taiwan is part of China and has neither the eligibility nor any right to discuss or give recognition to Kosovo. As far as a solution or preventative measure, China calls upon Serbia and Kosovo to continue negotiations for a suitable solution within international law, and will hopefully be able to work together to ensure peace and stability within region.
March 2nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Interesting approach… I wonder what sort of direct impact that the secession of Kosovo might have on the Chinese situation, dealing with the one rogue little island in particular.
As great as it sounds, I think the only thing that Russia is interested in is helping Serbia re-absorb its old province; I don’t think it will have any desire to temper and de-escalate the situation (especially considering that Russia has become rather confrontational with NATO in the past, recently resuming the nuclear deterrence flights of the Cold War Era. (full text here) It is unclear how far Russia is going to press for the return of Kosovo to Serbia, and if these remarks regarding the use of force are anything more then just saber rattling. What we still need to figure out, though, is the peculiarity of what to do about the peacekeepers on the ground right now in the country, and what their instructions should be if force is applied by Serbia or Russia.
On a side note, in the blog, you do not need to represent your country. You can say what you think - and try to think outside of the box. As for the extra credit, you need to address the questions asked specifically. I know that every one of you is very well versed in knowledge about international affairs; I want you to critically apply it to answer the questions at hand.
- Richard
“Peace is our Profession”
March 5th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
For now, I don’t think that the UNSC should authorize the expansion of KFOR’s mandate because we need to keep in mind that Russia has veto power in the committee. Before taking drastic action such as that, communication between Russia, Serbia, Kosovo, and other involved parties should be opened. Seeing as Russia doesn’t even recognize Kosovo as an independent state, this obviously would hinder the progress of the UNSC, again, due to the veto power. If conflict were to erupt with the peacekeepers, the UN will do what it can to alleviate the tensions. Additionally, if Kosovo wants to be recognized and respected by the international community, it will also do what is in its power to put down the violence. It’s hard to say, but I personally do not think that this conflict will expand to become a general war. The international community has been responding to this conflict. With such pressure from several nations to solve the conflict peacefully, a war is not probable.
The Republic of Croatia, in the case if a war were to break out, would first wait to see what the EU’s response is to the situation and then act accordingly. The EU has tremendous influence on Croatia at this time. Since Croatia is currently seeking membership in the European Union, we would of course, side with the European Union members.
March 5th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Negotiations and conflict mediation are definitely appropriate; though it would be very hard to convince Serbia and Russia to sit down with Kosovo on equal terms (and imagine it would be hard for Kosovo to talk with either of them on unequal ones) since they refuse to recognize its statehood. Most of the violence is in Serbia, in fact, directly mostly against the United States (since the majority of the work during Allied Force [military campaign] was done by them). The EU will certainly have a big role to play too. Hopefully, those in favor of Kosovan independence can find some leverage to help bargain for recognition, because otherwise is doesn’t seem like either the Russians or the Serbians have anything that they want more that can be used as a bargaining chip to convince them to accept statehood for Kosovo. The alternative to that, is of course, to force them to, but I don’t know if the EU, US, or NATO has the appetite for it.
March 5th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Negotiations and conflict mediation are definitely appropriate; though it would be very hard to convince Serbia and Russia to sit down with Kosovo on equal terms (and imagine it would be hard for Kosovo to talk with either of them on unequal ones) since they refuse to recognize its statehood. Most of the violence is in Serbia, in fact, directly mostly against the United States (since the majority of the work during Allied Force [military campaign] was done by them). The EU will certainly have a big role to play too. Hopefully, those in favor of Kosovan independence can find some leverage to help bargain for recognition, because otherwise is doesn’t seem like either the Russians or the Serbians have anything that they want more that can be used as a bargaining chip to convince them to accept statehood for Kosovo. The alternative to that, is of course, to force them to, but I don’t know if the EU, US, or NATO has the appetite for it.
- Richard Hill
“Peace is Our Profession”
March 9th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Russia’s veto power will make an eventual expansion of KFOR’s mandate difficult; however, Kosovo’s commitment to independence and the fact that many powerful nations have already recognized its independence means that there is very little chance that Serbia will regain control over Kosovo. Thus, an expansion of KFOR’s mandate to include the protection of Kosovo’s territorial integrity will be necessary in the long run. The international community will definitely need to apply diplomatic pressure or some sort of incentive in order to win Russia’s support in the Security Council. In regards to possible conflict involving NATO peacekeepers, I think that the UN needs to explicitly state that any violent action taken against KFOR will be met with corresponding action from the UN and international organizations. If Serbia or Russia wishes to challenge Kosovo’s independence, it needs to be done through diplomatic channels, not through military force. I doubt that this conflict will degenerate into an all-out war, but it could result in increased tensions between larger powers like the United States and Russia, thus creating a threat to international stability and diplomatic relations.
The United States believes that the most viable solution to the conflict is the implementation of the plan outlined by Martti Ahtisaari, who mediated the talks between Serbia and Kosovo in 2006. His plan would preserve an independent Kosovo but would also include a degree of self-government for the Serb municipalities in Northern Kosovo. These self-governing regions would additionally maintain continued ties to the Serbian government.
March 9th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
We believe that before any action is taking regarding the expansion of KFOR’s mandate, negotiations must take place between the Russian Federation and the remainder of the council. If chaos erupted and peace keepers were in danger caught in a crossfire, our priority should be to eliminate the violent outbursts and establish a standard of conformity between the opposing sides. This may also prove relevant to ensure negotiations remain constant to provide the opportunity to establish an agreement. The Russian Federation claims that if either NATO or the E.U conflict with the standards included in their mandate they will assume that force is necessary. The chance of the dispute rising to a war is evident based on the comment. We must however keep in mind that “Peace is our Profession.” It is our responsibility to ensure that the current issue does not escalate to war on either a regional or international basis.
Berkina Faso would like the reiterate the necessity of the formulation and continuation of the negotiations between the Russian Federation, members of the Balkan Region, and the Security Council. We also find promise in the NATO sponsored peacekeeping effort in the region however feel it is necessary that they stay within mandate until an agreement for expansion is met.