Crisis Simulation - Pakistan

Hi Again,

So Crisis is not just about what your country should do, it is also about predicting what the other countries involved will do presented with the same crisis, to that end I am going to start posting articles about China and India. I would also suggest that you read their crisis blogs since some of the ministers (specifically Indian ones) are already divulging state secrets.

blogs.bmun.net/crisischina

blogs.bmun.net/crisisindia

So here is a series of articles that would be good to read:

About China:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7218242.stm -Yes this is seasonal but understanding how the government responds is important.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7219365.stm -Another fun story about unsafe food

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7219092.stm - More snow, pay attention to the section on food

India:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/indiapakistan/ -A site dedicated to celebrating India’s and Pakistan’s independence. Worth checking out the culture and the history is a must

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7218008.stm - Shaky internet is something to keep an eye out for, maybe we can use this to our advantage?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7219237.stm - and here is a nice article about and old India China squabble

Pakistan:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7220823.stm - Is the man who planned Bhutto’s death dead????

Ok that is all for know, remember the most important thing to remember is not just to play on Pakistan’s strength but to try to find the others’ weaknesses, because lets face it, Allah is not going to be super helpful if China and India invaded.

Cheers,

Per

I don’t think I mentioned this earlier, but crisis will accord 10 percent of your position papers grade to blog participation, I want at least 1 serious post from everyone before the conference.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7212074.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7212473.stm

Ok here are two more articles that are worth reading over. Here are a few questions to ponder:

1) Will the Taleban interfere in the elections, and if they do, how will they do it and will it affect the elections?

2) How genuine is Musharraf’s desire for free elections? Why or why not?

Will there be elections in Pakistan?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7199502.stm

So as you all should know by know Pakistani elections (originally to be held on Jan 8th I think) will be held on Feb 18th, but will they actually happen? That is the question…. Musharraf is in a tight spot no doubt, with the EU and USA breathing down his neck to have free elections, what should he do?

Reasons for Musharraf to let free happy go lucky elections go ahead:

1)  He just might win outright over a bickering opposition. I have seen so many conflicting polls that I don’t think any reliable polling data is available, but by and large Musharraf still seems to have the support of many people

2) With the possibility of several major opposition parties boycotting, he could have perfectly fair elections and still get legitimately elected in the eyes of the West, which will keep the juices flowing.

3) If the West cuts Pakistan off, bad stuff will happen. China is an excellent example of how people really don’t care about political freedoms as long has they are living well. If the EU and USA stop aid, and impose tariffs the economy might stall and then he will have a real problem.

Reasons to not let the elections go ahead.

1) Wants to stay in power, that about sums it up…

Musharraf could also try to postpone elections again, but it would be risky, the EU and USA would increase pressure, and domestic turmoil would continue unless he can come up with a very good reason, such as a major terrorist strike, losing a nuke to terrorists etc. Something big

Bottom line, Musharraf would be an idiot for not letting the elections go ahead on the 18th. But that is just my opinion, bonus points for anybody who comes up with a good argument for why Musharraf should delay elections and how he should go about doing it.

Ok guys thats all for now!

shaayed khuda hona saath aap

WAZZER Per

And Remember : “Unity, Discipline and Faith”

Ok guys,

You have the hardest jobs position paper wise, so I am going to give you the option to do something a little more unorthodox, more fun, and harder for me to grade You will have 2 options:

1) Write a Position Paper on the government as of January 1st 2008. (if you have already written you paper, don’t sweat it just write an “as of” note on it)

2) Write what will happen, what will the Pakistani political landscape look like in General as of March 2008, and extrapolate your ministers position. Give me a guess of a name, policy and please back it up with solid research and sound logic. If you have any questions email me at dane(at)berkeley.edu. The main point of this exercise is to see how good you are at political analysis, a very important crisis skill. Also, if you write a paper like this, the person who comes the closest to predicting how Pakistani politics will look in March 2008, will win a prize!!!

And a short word on length. There is no page limit, but make it good! If it is long winded and bores me I will mark you down off the bat. I know this is a HUGE cliche, but I would rather have 5 great pages than 15 so so pages. If you email me your papers I would be happy to look them over and give general feedback before final submission.  Also, I will accept Wikipedia as a valid source, if the article looks good, a lot of the facts are backed up by sources. Use your common sense, if the title is “Bhutto had to a painful death to cleanse her soul.. etc etc etc” don’t use it please
Cheers,

Per

Hello everybody!

My name is Per, and I will be one of your chairs at this years conference. I am a second year here at Cal and last year I chaired CSC (or for the less acronym obsessed Crisis Security Council). We as Pakistan have a fun game ahead of us, it is called guess the cabinet! We have the hardest job of any committee, so come well prepared, and despite India’s belligerent warmongering and China’s naked aggression and scheming with the untrustworthy Indians we will be VICTORIOUS!

I would strongly suggest that you follow current events in Pakistan and read up on the major political parties, like the PPP etc, and their leaders. I look forward to seeing you guys in March and as we get closer and closer hopefully we will know who has what position in the cabinet. I will try to remember to post any interesting articles I find on Pakistan and if you want some help or advice feel free to post a question!

Cheers,

Per