http://blogs.bmun.net/crisis

A lot of important information has been posted. READ IT!

And prepare for Pakistani domination of China and India

Per

Hi guys,

Very sorry for long silence, my internet at my apartment has been shaky so I haven’t had a chance to write for a while. The most important information is this, as of March 1st the real world ceased to exist. Further more you will be the original ministers or deputy directors (in some cases) under the Musharraf  government, which means you are a lame duck government, and really have nothing to loose. This is your chance to get the country back on your side my showing great leadership, so be sure to rise to the occasion.

We will be posting “news” articles on the blogs soon so be sure to read them as there is a good chance they will be pertinent.

Per

Hey everyone,

I hope that you are doing well and have the date Feb 18th near your hearts

So I picked out a couple of interesting articles that are worth reading:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7078656.stm

-This is a very nice overview of the different political forces in Pakistan, well worth the read

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7245493.stm

-Love this article, it speculates what if anything will get done post election.

Hope you guys enjoy

Per

Hey Guys,

I am really busy, so I will refrain from a lot of commentary today, but thought you deserved a few news tidbits

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080208/ap_on_re_as/pakistan

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7229076.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7228864.stm

Have fun, have a good weekend, and remember I will be happy to look over a draft of any position paper

Cheers,

Per

First off a little article from the WSJ

Can Free Elections Save Pakistan?

Minority-Party Head
Says Only Democracy
Can Prevent Civil War

By NAUREEN MALIK
February 5, 2008

NEW YORK — Pakistan cricket legend Imran Khan has struggled over the past decade to gain traction for the minority political party he started called Tehreek-e-Insaf, or the Movement for Justice. Now, he sees Pakistan on the road to civil war unless the national elections Feb. 18 help restore an independent judiciary. He also calls on the U.S. to focus on backing a democratically elected government rather than President Pervez Musharraf, who began a new five-year term in November.

Mr. Khan, 55 years old, says his party will boycott the coming elections unless judges ousted when Mr. Musharraf declared a state of emergency late last year are reinstated. But even if he skips the elections, he believes his campaign for an independent judiciary has raised his party’s profile and political influence for the future. These are edited excerpts from an interview with The Wall Street Journal’s Naureen Malik during a recent visit by Mr. Khan to the U.S.

WSJ: Considering that your party only has marginal power in the Pakistani political establishment, what can you hope to accomplish?

Mr. Khan: Now is the first time the party’s on its feet. We’ve suffered two defeats. We went down and then picked ourselves up and now the party’s gradually getting the organization structure to become a fighting force. I think we will do well in the next elections. It might not come into power, but it will become a player in Pakistani politics.

WSJ: Do you think that the reinstatement of the judges is enough to ensure democracy?

Mr. Khan: The only way forward is the reinstatement of the judges. For the first time, the people of Pakistan have such faith in a judiciary that they will stand up to the government. Never before has it happened.

WSJ: What do you think about U.S. President George W. Bush’s policy towards Pakistan?

Mr. Khan: It has been a disaster for both U.S. and Pakistan. He’s backed a dictator against the democrats, and the way the whole war on terror has been fought has only increased terrorism. Pakistan is on the verge of destabilization, and it was a completely wrong strategy where the hearts-and-minds war was being lost. We want a completely different strategy for dealing with terrorism.

WSJ: What should that strategy be?

Mr. Khan: The only thing we want from the U.S. is to back a democratic government, a credible democratic government. The strategy should be using political dialogue, mobilizing the people and excluding the terrorists rather than the current policy, which is one dimension, all military. I hear things like the U.S. will send its troops to the tribal areas — that will exacerbate the situation much more.

WSJ: Is it reasonable to expect the U.S. to back off after pouring billions of dollars of aid into Pakistan? Should the U.S. cut aid if elections are not fair?

Mr. Khan: I don’t care whether the U.S. gives aid. What good is this aid if Pakistan implodes? The only reason why Musharraf is still there is because the U.S. is supporting him. So they should back the democratic process, the reinstatement of judges, and not say that somehow Musharraf is the only person who can fight terrorism.

WSJ: Hasn’t Mr. Musharraf’s continued authority prevented the country from falling into complete turmoil?

Mr. Khan: This is the biggest myth promoted by Musharraf. He’s successfully done enough propaganda to convince people [in the U.S.] that if anything happens to him, the country will be swamped by extremists or that al Qaeda will take over the nukes. I think nuclear is not an issue; it’s a fantasy. They are safe anyway because there is consensus in Pakistan that they should be defended and secured because they protect our security. But I think much more importantly, a democratic government is the best chance to deal with terrorists. Terrorism has gone up in leaps and bounds.

WSJ: You have a clear vision for democracy, but in reality could Pakistan continue to bumble along as the failed state it has been for decades?

Mr. Khan: Pakistan cannot go along as it is. Either it will now reform, which I’m very optimistic will happen, or it will descend into chaos. It cannot be business as usual. Unless we remedy this huge disparity between the rich and the poor, eventually we are heading toward a civil war. It is unsustainable. You can’t have a system where there is a tiny, very rich elite and then masses of poor people deprived of basic rights.

WSJ: Do you aspire to become Pakistan’s leader?

Mr. Khan: It’s not a question of aspirations. I know, God willing, one day I am going to succeed, and that’s not very far, simply because I know that the people in Pakistan perceive me as probably the most credible leader. I’m not saying that we will win the elections in the first go, but I think we are well on our way.

WSJ: So how do you address rising extremism in the country, particularly in the tribal areas?

Mr. Khan: The way to deal with it is to marginalize the extremists. You don’t start by killing people; you start by talking to people. The only way to win the war against terror is when the terrorists become fish out of water rather than fish in water. If they start considering them heroes, then you lose the war. What should happen is that political parties should be able to work in the tribal areas to gradually bring the tribes into the mainstream.

WSJ: Foreign investors have been fleeing due to the rising instability and uncertainty in Pakistan. What is your solution for drawing them back?

Mr. Khan: Pakistan is a very vibrant economy given the opportunity. All we need is political stability. That will come with a democracy — once you have stability; everyone knows what’s going to happen in every election, like in India. Secondly, it is most important to have an independent justice system to attract investment where the investor feels that he has a referee to go to if things go wrong. They must have faith in contract enforcement. No. 3 is the redirection of resources towards human beings, in other words human development, education, and spending money on people, which always happens more in democratic systems than dictatorships.

Any thoughts people???  This article is quite different than the one from the Dawn that I posted a few days ago. If Musharraf goes, will Pakistan descend into chaos, will a weak bickering democratic government be overrun in a matter of days? Who knows. But let me hear your input.

Per

Hello again,

So I found another article on the internet cuts explaining the more technical side of it
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7222536.stm

Also, an article for our foreign minister, it seems others agree with your analysis, an interesting article, if poorly written :
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=200821\story_1-2-2008_pg7_2

and lastly but not least and article about Arunachal Pradesh,and the $2B aid package to the state

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7221476.stm

Ok that is all for today, remember, keep up to date, and read the China and India blogs too!

Per

Hi Again,

So Crisis is not just about what your country should do, it is also about predicting what the other countries involved will do presented with the same crisis, to that end I am going to start posting articles about China and India. I would also suggest that you read their crisis blogs since some of the ministers (specifically Indian ones) are already divulging state secrets.

blogs.bmun.net/crisischina

blogs.bmun.net/crisisindia

So here is a series of articles that would be good to read:

About China:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7218242.stm -Yes this is seasonal but understanding how the government responds is important.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7219365.stm -Another fun story about unsafe food

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7219092.stm - More snow, pay attention to the section on food

India:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/indiapakistan/ -A site dedicated to celebrating India’s and Pakistan’s independence. Worth checking out the culture and the history is a must

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7218008.stm - Shaky internet is something to keep an eye out for, maybe we can use this to our advantage?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7219237.stm - and here is a nice article about and old India China squabble

Pakistan:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7220823.stm - Is the man who planned Bhutto’s death dead????

Ok that is all for know, remember the most important thing to remember is not just to play on Pakistan’s strength but to try to find the others’ weaknesses, because lets face it, Allah is not going to be super helpful if China and India invaded.

Cheers,

Per

I don’t think I mentioned this earlier, but crisis will accord 10 percent of your position papers grade to blog participation, I want at least 1 serious post from everyone before the conference.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7212074.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7212473.stm

Ok here are two more articles that are worth reading over. Here are a few questions to ponder:

1) Will the Taleban interfere in the elections, and if they do, how will they do it and will it affect the elections?

2) How genuine is Musharraf’s desire for free elections? Why or why not?

Will there be elections in Pakistan?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7199502.stm

So as you all should know by know Pakistani elections (originally to be held on Jan 8th I think) will be held on Feb 18th, but will they actually happen? That is the question…. Musharraf is in a tight spot no doubt, with the EU and USA breathing down his neck to have free elections, what should he do?

Reasons for Musharraf to let free happy go lucky elections go ahead:

1)  He just might win outright over a bickering opposition. I have seen so many conflicting polls that I don’t think any reliable polling data is available, but by and large Musharraf still seems to have the support of many people

2) With the possibility of several major opposition parties boycotting, he could have perfectly fair elections and still get legitimately elected in the eyes of the West, which will keep the juices flowing.

3) If the West cuts Pakistan off, bad stuff will happen. China is an excellent example of how people really don’t care about political freedoms as long has they are living well. If the EU and USA stop aid, and impose tariffs the economy might stall and then he will have a real problem.

Reasons to not let the elections go ahead.

1) Wants to stay in power, that about sums it up…

Musharraf could also try to postpone elections again, but it would be risky, the EU and USA would increase pressure, and domestic turmoil would continue unless he can come up with a very good reason, such as a major terrorist strike, losing a nuke to terrorists etc. Something big

Bottom line, Musharraf would be an idiot for not letting the elections go ahead on the 18th. But that is just my opinion, bonus points for anybody who comes up with a good argument for why Musharraf should delay elections and how he should go about doing it.

Ok guys thats all for now!

shaayed khuda hona saath aap

WAZZER Per

And Remember : “Unity, Discipline and Faith”

Ok guys,

You have the hardest jobs position paper wise, so I am going to give you the option to do something a little more unorthodox, more fun, and harder for me to grade You will have 2 options:

1) Write a Position Paper on the government as of January 1st 2008. (if you have already written you paper, don’t sweat it just write an “as of” note on it)

2) Write what will happen, what will the Pakistani political landscape look like in General as of March 2008, and extrapolate your ministers position. Give me a guess of a name, policy and please back it up with solid research and sound logic. If you have any questions email me at dane(at)berkeley.edu. The main point of this exercise is to see how good you are at political analysis, a very important crisis skill. Also, if you write a paper like this, the person who comes the closest to predicting how Pakistani politics will look in March 2008, will win a prize!!!

And a short word on length. There is no page limit, but make it good! If it is long winded and bores me I will mark you down off the bat. I know this is a HUGE cliche, but I would rather have 5 great pages than 15 so so pages. If you email me your papers I would be happy to look them over and give general feedback before final submission.  Also, I will accept Wikipedia as a valid source, if the article looks good, a lot of the facts are backed up by sources. Use your common sense, if the title is “Bhutto had to a painful death to cleanse her soul.. etc etc etc” don’t use it please
Cheers,

Per