Well, as many of the Ministers have already hypothesized, it is quite possible that a Crisis may occur with regards to Taiwan. I want to bring up the foreign relations focus of a conflict with Taiwan, with an emphasis on the United States.
We know that the USA is a strong (if not the only) backer of the status-quo for Mainland-Taiwan relations. While the US and China did sign the Shanghai Communique in 1972 (one year after the US allowed China into the Security Council) that agreed on the “One China” principle, there has always been strong friction between the US and China on the point of Taiwan.
One problematic feature is the Taiwan Relations Act, a domestic US law which stipulates that the US is obligated to sell arms to Taiwan and to possibly defend it if necessary. While the TRA is definitely more dilute than the original Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty (1954), it still means that the US has a vested interest in the security of Taiwan. Some analysts believe that the TRA will “force” the US to engage in a conflict with China over Taiwan, even if the US is hesitant to do so. Others hold that the US is fully capable of ignoring its own laws under realistic terms.
On China’s part, in March 2005, the Anti-Succession Law was passed, which pretty much served as a line in the sand regarding Taiwan. So, if Taiwan made certain moves towards independence, or exhausted all the options of reunification, China would be legally obligated to invade. Once again, like the TRA, analysts are conflicted over the actual willingness to enforce the Anti-Succession Law.
As Ministers, your task will be to carefully decide on what to do in case of a conflict over Taiwan. Firstly, what is China willing to pay in order to keep the renegade province? Secondly, what are the most successful strategies (diplomatic, military, and otherwise) to pursue Taiwan? Thirdly, how might India and Pakistan use this conflict to their own advantages?
