Archive for January, 2008

Posting Comments

Thursday, January 31st, 2008

Delegates of the Chinese Cabinet, I strongly urge you to post comments.

Compared to our peers in the Indian and Pakistani Cabinets, who have 5 and 6 comments, we have yet to have a single comment.

Not only are comments required as part of your overall evaluation, but also provide you a unique chance to discuss matters with your Chairs and your fellow Cabinet members. Comments also give us a good indication as to how often the blogs are read, and how good of a job we’re doing in meeting the needs of our delegates.

If any of you are pointed towards college in a few years, you should know that the same participation is expected in your classroom. Up to 30% of your final grade in many classes could be decided by how well and how often you speak up. So think of this as good practise for the future collegiate experience.

Hopefully this situation will change in the near future, and I look forward to discussions!

News Update 2008.01.29

Wednesday, January 30th, 2008

Hello! Eric here with some stories that are quite revealing about China today.

Snowstorms Hit Southern China
So you might think that a relatively minor natural disaster has little to do with Chinese politics. However, there are some interesting points to take away from this article.

  • Role of the Government- to be honest, the Chinese Communist Party is scrambling to show that it remains an important and useful part of China. Given that “communism” has been tossed aside in favor of economic development, the CCP can no longer justify its rule through ideological means. Two alternate paths that the CCP has pursued to remain relevant are “nationalism” and “pragmatism”. The argument that the CCP should remain in power because it’s good at solving problems is the latter approach, and this rapid response to the snowstorm is an excellent example of the CCP demonstrating its usefulness.
  • Role of the Military- in China, the military (PLA) is seen through a different lens than in the United States. Because China doesn’t deploy its military abroad, the PLA often finds itself at home doing housework. Chinese television is filled with news reports of soldiers visiting schools and homes for the elderly. Another role is of course assisting in natural disaster recovery efforts.
  • Heading off Instability- one reason for the rapidness of the response is that the Chinese leadership probably understands the precariousness of their situation. If enough people become discontent over the same thing (in this case a snowstorm), then they might meet together and discuss their problems. This of course is the first step towards an opposition party, or at the very least organized political resistance and protest.
  • Military Preparedness- the article notes that almost half a million Chinese soldiers have been mobilized in under two days in order to fight the “war” against snow. Now, granted this type of force mobilization is much easier than a full-battle mobilization, but the scale of the preparations is indicative of China’s newfound ability to rapidly equip, supply, and transport soldiers near its borders.

Read More (People’s Daily)
Read More (CNN)

Chinese Yuan at Record High Against Dollar
For quite awhile now there has been much discussion of the booming Chinese economy and its effects on other countries, specifically the US and EU. This article goes into a very specific view on inflation rates and the Chinese yuan, and touches only briefly on the competition between the yuan and the US dollar.

  • Artificial Value of the Yuan- originally, the yuan was “pegged” to the American dollar, meaning that its value wouldn’t fluctuate according to natural market values. So, no matter if China was better or worse off, its currency would remain the same vis-a-vis the dollar. For a long time, many economists believed that this gave an extra trading advantage to China, making Chinese goods cheaper in the US and American goods more expensive in China. In the most recent few years, China has slowly “unpegged” the yuan and revalued it, allowing for some fluctuation.
  • Trade Deficit- at this rate, the Chinese trade surplus with the US is staggering, and causing significant concerns for many American policymakers. The main risk here includes a loss of American jobs, capital, and industries. The actual affordability of the debt isn’t so much a problem, as China buys up American treasury bonds, “lending” money to America so it may purchase more Chinese goods.
  • Inflation- more a problem for China than the US, the stockpiling of American bonds and currency in Chinese treasuries has created a difficult inflation problem. Because all business in China must be done in Chinese yuan, foreign currency is regularly exchanged for yuan and stockpiled. The massive amount of foreign currency then makes the Chinese yuan less valuable, increasing the costs of important staples such as rice and pork. Naturally, Chinese citizens are significantly hurt by these price hikes, leading to the possibility of social unrest.
  • High Savings Rates- another contributing factor to inflation is the high savings rates that most Chinese people have. This is largely due to a lack of a social security system in China. So if a farmer gets old or sick, chances are that he will have to pay for his own care. Thus, it makes sense to save up money, instead of spending it in the domestic or import economy.

Read More (People’s Daily)

That’s it for this week!

Welcome to Crisis - Chinese Cabinet!

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2008

Hi,

My name is Catherine Choh, and I will be your Head Chair for the upcoming conference. I apologize for the delay in blogging, but many thanks to Eric for keeping the Cabinet updated! First of all, I know your position papers are due in less than two weeks. However, I would like to go over and reiterate some suggestions regarding your papers. Please follow the 1500-word minimum guideline as suggested by Eric, but I am also going to ask that you do not exceed a maximum of 10 pages. I also ask that you cite all your sources properly, using footnotes/endnotes and a Works Cited. If you have any more questions about position paper guidelines that may be unclear, please feel free to e-mail me at catherinechoh@berkeley.edu.

I am extremely excited to meet you all, and I expect to see some interesting interactions between Chinese Cabinet members!

Yours truly,
Catherine

Modernizing the Military

Friday, January 18th, 2008

While the military is only a small fraction of what foreign policy can be, and might not even be the best option at all times, it’s sometimes the least understood of all the policies. You may want to read up on the main blog for a general article dealing with military affairs.

For China specifically, however, we’re in a bit of luck. Back in the day for one of my classes I had to come up with a presentation on Chinese force deployments (what they have and where it is). You might find this file useful for understanding what China can or can’t pull off in terms of military action.

I’m sure your Minister of Defense will have more information on the matter, but if you have any questions, feel free to ask!

-Eric

Working with the UNSC

Thursday, January 17th, 2008

As you’ll note on our main blog, this year we’ll be working hand-in-hand with the United Nations Security Council.  This means that what we will do in our Cabinets will show up on their radars, and vice-versa.

An interesting aspect of this is that among the three Cabinets, China is the only one with actual voting representation on the Security Council.  This of course means that the Chinese Cabinet will get an extra bundle of goodies, namely veto power to control what the United Nations can or can’t do in a potential South Asian Crisis.

Of course, this also means that the Chinese Cabinet will have to coordinate with their Ambassadors at the United Nations.  This is no easy task, and we haven’t quite come up with a system to accurately work it out.  I’d imagine that messages would be sent to the Ambassadors (there will be two of them) at regular intervals, and that at times the Ambassadors may visit the Cabinet, and that the Prime Minister or Foreign Minister may make a trip to the UNSC.  The trick is to have both sides of the Chinese government to be on the same page, because it would be downright confusing if the Cabinet and Ambassadors were pursuing different policies.

If you have any ideas on how to best arrange this, speak up!  Thanks.

-Eric

China Today

Thursday, January 17th, 2008

Hello, it’s Eric again, this time with a more substantive post.

To start off with, I’m personally rather interested in China and Chinese government policy, both as my area of study at UC Berkeley, but also because I think that for better or for worse, China will be the second most powerful international actor in a few years time.  Pretty much for that reason I’ve gotten mixed up in a variety of things to do with China.  I’ve studied at Peking University (Beida), and been invited as a guest of the Chinese government to Shanghai for presentations.  I instruct a student-led course at Berkeley on US-China-Taiwan Affairs, and my personal library is flooded with works on China.

At the same time though, I’m excited by the fact that I don’t really have much clue as to what’s going on. :P   So we’ll learn, discuss, and debate together on what’s happening in the People’s Republic of China, and see what we find out.  Agreed?

To begin with, let’s take a look at where China is today, and where it isn’t.

Many people argue that China is one thing or China is another, and this is where they make their first mistake.  To be honest, not even the Chinese know what China is anymore, and this is largely due to the fact that China is no longer a monolithic state.  In previous times, during the eras of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, China was directed by what is academically known as a “paramount leader“, which pretty much means that what they wanted always happened without question.  So if Mao wanted the Great Leap Forward, he got it.  If Deng wanted economic reform, it happened right away.  This is where we get the idea that Beijing controls anything and everything in China, and has massive supernatural powers that our President can only dream of.

Today, the Chinese political scene isn’t actually all that different from the one found in the United States.  There are power struggles within the Party, such as the sacking of high-ranking officials in Shanghai.   People protest when their freedoms are violated, as in the case of a killed reporter.  And China, like the US, goes to places for strategic energy needs like Sudan. Conflicts of interest are everywhere in Chinese politics, termed the tiaokuai guanxi.

This means that for us, the politics of China have become much more complicated.  As a Cabinet, domestic interests need to be weighed against foreign policy, something that didn’t really bother Chinese leaders prior to the mid 1980’s.  So, whether it be the interests of farmers, investors, provincial governments, or the military, there’s going to be some sort of external pressure for Beijing to act.

On the plus side, the last twenty to thirty years has made China much stronger, economically and militarily.  Since they’ve moved on from a strict socialist-style command economy, to a system called “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, the Chinese standard of living and economy has been booming.  And of course with these funds come the long awaited period of military modernization.  Both a strong economy and massive military give you many more options to play with.

So the big question, one that you’ll have to face in March along side virtually every scholar who studies East Asian politics, is what will China do with its new power?  Some argue that China is a revisionist power, one that seeks to substantially change the international order and norms that were created without the consent of the Chinese people.  Others point out that China is clearly a status quo power, that appreciates the order that the international community brings, and therefore won’t change much.

Oh, and one last thing.  I might have used some terms here, in either Chinese or Political Science-ese, that you may not understand.  That’s perfectly fine, because I didn’t know them either. :P   That is, until I asked.  So if there’s anything, at any point, that you don’t quite get, please post a comment or email me, and we’ll sort it out.

-Eric

Hi!

Thursday, January 17th, 2008

I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I’m not really the lovely Ms. Catherine Choh, whom will probably be the one actually editing this blog. Because we’re still sorting some things out, and in the process of beginning our new semester, it’s naturally expected that we’re all rather busy right now. Which means that your Head Chair has to step up to the plate, right? After all, that’s what I’m for. :P

I’m sure Ms. Choh will be making a more graceful introduction later on, but here are some things that you may want to start off with:

  • Read our topic synopsis.
  • If you’re new to Crisis, please read up on the basics of what you got yourself into. If there’s anything that you don’t get (which probably will happen due to the hastily written article), please email me (address is below)!
  • Please note our guidelines and deadlines for position papers.
  • Also, you definitely want to know that it’s grading policy that blog participation is now a component of your score.

At any rate, I do hope you’ve found this useful. Please feel free to contact me at Eric's Address if you have any questions or concerns!

-Eric Ching
秦 道 伸 Qin Daoshen
Crisis Simulations Head Chair