Crisis Simulation - China

So it looks like the Crises are finally beginning to roll in…

The most pressing for us is this article, about the upcoming “elections” in Taiwan.   Read the article carefully.  How does this apply to the Anti-Succession Law?  How might nationalism come into play about this issue?

A round of cold has hit the Kashmir region, resulting in this.   Having just recovered from our own snowstorm, how should China respond?  What are the advantages and disadvantages to helping India or Pakistan take care of these villagers?  How might this help China’s international image?  How might it hurt it?

Finally, a bit of rioting has broken out in Pakistan over a game of cricket, as explained here.   Once again, how might nationalism (of a Pakistani flavour) come into play?  Should China get involved?

Only two days left!

Well, as many of the Ministers have already hypothesized, it is quite possible that a Crisis may occur with regards to Taiwan.  I want to bring up the foreign relations focus of a conflict with Taiwan, with an emphasis on the United States.

We know that the USA is a strong (if not the only) backer of the status-quo for Mainland-Taiwan relations.  While the US and China did sign the Shanghai Communique in 1972 (one year after the US allowed China into the Security Council)  that agreed on the “One China” principle, there has always been strong friction between the US and China on the point of Taiwan.

One problematic feature is the Taiwan Relations Act,  a domestic US law which stipulates that the US is obligated to sell arms to Taiwan and to possibly defend it if necessary.  While the TRA is definitely more dilute than the original Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty (1954), it still means that the US has a vested interest in the security of Taiwan.  Some analysts believe that the TRA will “force” the US to engage in a conflict with China over Taiwan, even if the US is hesitant to do so.  Others hold that the US is fully capable of ignoring its own laws under realistic terms.

On China’s part, in March 2005, the Anti-Succession Law was passed, which pretty much served as a line in the sand regarding Taiwan.   So, if Taiwan made certain moves towards independence, or exhausted all the options of reunification, China would be legally obligated to invade.  Once again, like the TRA, analysts are conflicted over the actual willingness to enforce the Anti-Succession Law.

As Ministers, your task will be to carefully decide on what to do in case of a conflict over Taiwan.  Firstly, what is China willing to pay in order to keep the renegade province?  Secondly, what are the most successful strategies (diplomatic, military, and otherwise) to pursue Taiwan?  Thirdly, how might India and Pakistan use this conflict to their own advantages?

We’ve gotten a message from our Comrade Ambassador who is assigned to the UN Security Council:

“I received an e-mail from Eric Ching informing my partner and I that we will be acting with the Chinese Crisis Cabinet.  I was wondering if you had come up with a way for us to coordinate… policy with the Cabinet?”

It would most likely be a good idea to give some instruction to our Ambassador.

Hello delegates!

First I would like to apologize for the delay in processing your comments.  I have noticed that some of them date from the 27th of February, and only yesterday did I receive the email indicating that there were comments to process.  I have read a few of them, and hopefully within the next few days I will be able to respond to your thoughts (which seem excellently profound).

I want to let you know that the Crisis Head Chair has announced that March 1st is our “reality cut-off date” .  Additionally, he will be posting “news articles” on the Main Crisis Blog.  It’s probably good if you read those articles and ponder on their significance to what might happen starting March 14th.

On a related note, there will no longer be news updates posted, but perhaps I will be offering analysis on the posted “news articles” instead.

Four articles appeared recently in the People’s Daily newspaper that featured anti-corruption as a chief aim of the Chinese government.  The first explained a reevaluation in the way that cadres (core Party members) were promoted or demoted.  The second article commented that Party officials would either be rewarded or punished based on their performances during the snow crisis.  The third involved the strengthening of China’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), the organ responsible for fighting corruption within the Party.  The fourth claims that a new “watchdog” organization within the CCDI will magically reduce corruption.

One important question is why there are so many articles regarding corruption all of a sudden.  Perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to actually clamp down on corruption, and is sending a clear message to all Party members (most of whom religiously read the People’s Daily).  On the other hand, the CCP may be trying to appear strict in the eyes of the public, which in general can be quite discontent over perceived inadequacies of the CCP.

Why is corruption so rampant in China?  The answer lies in the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).  The CCDI is the only body that is capable of censuring Party members, because in most cases the Party is untouchable by the state.  In theory, the CCDI is a separate, unbiased organization that is out of the reach of any Party member.  In reality however, relationships between CCDI officials and other Party members make fighting corruption difficult.  Recently in the case of the Mayor of Shanghai, the CCDI played an arguably political role in the investigation.

In terms of local petty officials, there simply does not exist the current infrastructure or motivation to try them.  In this way, peasants are charged unusual and illegal taxes and tolls, so that local officials may supplement their income (which in their defense is often inadequate or meager).  Few reporting mechanisms (given the controlled press) are available for peasants to voice their grievances, and on more than one occasion this lack of redress has resulted in armed violence.

One of the most interesting aspects of modern, post 1976 China is that of nationalism. Several books have been written on the subject, including Gries’ “China’s New Nationalism“, Unger and Barme’s “Chinese Nationalism“, and Chang’s “Return of the Dragon“.*

Nationalism in China has taken several flavors. The earliest form could best be labeled as “Han Nationalism”, during the early 1911 revolutions against the Qing empire. This was because the Qing were not ethnically Han (the dominant ethnic group in China), but Manchu. Hence, it was beneficial to create the rallying point of ethnicity in order to mobilize the population against the Qing dynasty.

Once China became a state of 56 ethnic groups, Han Nationalism fell out of favor, simply because advocating one group as superior would destroy the logic of incorporating ethnic territories into China (such as Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia). In line with the Maoist ideologies of the time, Anti-Imperialist Nationalism became dominant, painting the picture of the international class struggle which defined the worldwide Communist movement.

With the arrival of Deng Xiaoping in 1978, Communism too became rather taboo. In this period, the state was advocating “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”, meaning roughly capitalism. To support this economic reform, Anti-Imperialist Nationalism was switched to plain old Chinese Nationalism, an ideology which promoted the entirety of China as the object of national passion. This included “Chinese” culture and traditional practices, reversing the previous emphasis on pure modernity.

Unfortunately for the Chinese government, nationalism soon proved to be a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it was a useful mechanism for the Chinese Communist Party to rely on in order to retain their legitimacy, and to mobilize the public for various projects. On the other hand, it proved difficult to control, and at times the Chinese government found itself the target of angry nationalists, who proclaimed that Beijing was “too soft” on China’s enemies. Protests involving Japan and the United States were particularly worrisome for Beijing.

Undoubtedly, we will come across the forces of nationalism during our Crisis, when the public passions are running high. Please keep in mind that while it is easy to direct impassioned masses to rise up to protect the CCP, it is equally likely that the same mobs could be marching to the front steps of Zhongnanhai.

*Please note that the mentioning of these books in no way is encouragement or endorsement on purchasing them (given that BMUN doesn’t get paid for advertising). Most well-stocked public libraries should have copies, and if they don’t, bug your librarian about it.

Inspired by the EU’s page, here are some comics as they relate to our glorious nation!

Political Comics on China

If you were looking for a research source, I’m afraid these aren’t actual political cartoons from China.  But they’re great for your enjoyment nonetheless!

-Eric

Hi! A more brief news update this time around.

Taiwan Warned Against “Referendum”
Beijing issues a warning to Taipei (which in no way suggests that they’re by any means equal) that if it continues to seek UN membership, Taiwan will pay a “heavy price”.

• What does Beijing mean by “heavy price”? How much is Beijing really willing to pay to safeguard territorial integrity? How much is Taiwan willing to pay for independence?
• Why does the article (from China’s state newspaper) make a point about the “opposition from the international community, including the US”?
• How does Beijing make the argument that the “referendum” is undemocratic, and what does that reflect on the value that China places on democracy?

Read More (People’s Daily)

Retooling the Economy
Given the recent snowstorms and the economic slowdown of the United States, Chinese economists are proposing that economic policy be adjusted before the National People’s Congress on March 5.

• How deeply are the economies of the US and China intertwined? How does that affect cooperation or conflict in non-economic fields, such as politics and war?
• What risks do inflation create for social stability in China? What does it mean for workers when their wages no longer support a minimum standard of living?

Read More (People’s Daily)

Managing Minorities
An article on the People’s Daily very briefly mentions the Tibetans celebrating their New Year in Beijing. Apart from general interest in Tibetan culture, this article reveals some interesting concepts about China’s 56 ethnic groups.

• Why does the article mention that “economic achievements” during a cultural celebration?
• What is the importance of negotiating with the various ethnic groups in China (Tibetans, Uighurs)?

Read More (People’s Daily)

That’s it! Let us know what you think of these articles.

Delegates of the Chinese Cabinet, I strongly urge you to post comments.

Compared to our peers in the Indian and Pakistani Cabinets, who have 5 and 6 comments, we have yet to have a single comment.

Not only are comments required as part of your overall evaluation, but also provide you a unique chance to discuss matters with your Chairs and your fellow Cabinet members. Comments also give us a good indication as to how often the blogs are read, and how good of a job we’re doing in meeting the needs of our delegates.

If any of you are pointed towards college in a few years, you should know that the same participation is expected in your classroom. Up to 30% of your final grade in many classes could be decided by how well and how often you speak up. So think of this as good practise for the future collegiate experience.

Hopefully this situation will change in the near future, and I look forward to discussions!

Hello! Eric here with some stories that are quite revealing about China today.

Snowstorms Hit Southern China
So you might think that a relatively minor natural disaster has little to do with Chinese politics. However, there are some interesting points to take away from this article.

• Role of the Government- to be honest, the Chinese Communist Party is scrambling to show that it remains an important and useful part of China. Given that “communism” has been tossed aside in favor of economic development, the CCP can no longer justify its rule through ideological means. Two alternate paths that the CCP has pursued to remain relevant are “nationalism” and “pragmatism”. The argument that the CCP should remain in power because it’s good at solving problems is the latter approach, and this rapid response to the snowstorm is an excellent example of the CCP demonstrating its usefulness.
• Role of the Military- in China, the military (PLA) is seen through a different lens than in the United States. Because China doesn’t deploy its military abroad, the PLA often finds itself at home doing housework. Chinese television is filled with news reports of soldiers visiting schools and homes for the elderly. Another role is of course assisting in natural disaster recovery efforts.
• Heading off Instability- one reason for the rapidness of the response is that the Chinese leadership probably understands the precariousness of their situation. If enough people become discontent over the same thing (in this case a snowstorm), then they might meet together and discuss their problems. This of course is the first step towards an opposition party, or at the very least organized political resistance and protest.
• Military Preparedness- the article notes that almost half a million Chinese soldiers have been mobilized in under two days in order to fight the “war” against snow. Now, granted this type of force mobilization is much easier than a full-battle mobilization, but the scale of the preparations is indicative of China’s newfound ability to rapidly equip, supply, and transport soldiers near its borders.

Read More (People’s Daily)
Read More (CNN)

Chinese Yuan at Record High Against Dollar
For quite awhile now there has been much discussion of the booming Chinese economy and its effects on other countries, specifically the US and EU. This article goes into a very specific view on inflation rates and the Chinese yuan, and touches only briefly on the competition between the yuan and the US dollar.

• Artificial Value of the Yuan- originally, the yuan was “pegged” to the American dollar, meaning that its value wouldn’t fluctuate according to natural market values. So, no matter if China was better or worse off, its currency would remain the same vis-a-vis the dollar. For a long time, many economists believed that this gave an extra trading advantage to China, making Chinese goods cheaper in the US and American goods more expensive in China. In the most recent few years, China has slowly “unpegged” the yuan and revalued it, allowing for some fluctuation.
• Trade Deficit- at this rate, the Chinese trade surplus with the US is staggering, and causing significant concerns for many American policymakers. The main risk here includes a loss of American jobs, capital, and industries. The actual affordability of the debt isn’t so much a problem, as China buys up American treasury bonds, “lending” money to America so it may purchase more Chinese goods.
• Inflation- more a problem for China than the US, the stockpiling of American bonds and currency in Chinese treasuries has created a difficult inflation problem. Because all business in China must be done in Chinese yuan, foreign currency is regularly exchanged for yuan and stockpiled. The massive amount of foreign currency then makes the Chinese yuan less valuable, increasing the costs of important staples such as rice and pork. Naturally, Chinese citizens are significantly hurt by these price hikes, leading to the possibility of social unrest.
• High Savings Rates- another contributing factor to inflation is the high savings rates that most Chinese people have. This is largely due to a lack of a social security system in China. So if a farmer gets old or sick, chances are that he will have to pay for his own care. Thus, it makes sense to save up money, instead of spending it in the domestic or import economy.

Read More (People’s Daily)

That’s it for this week!